People used to call it “King Coal” because of that fossil fuel’s importance as an energy source. In the last century 40 percent of the world’s electricity came from coal-fired plants. To limit global warming, that percentage must diminish to zero. Until now, however, it has only been reduced to about 36 percent of the world’s electricity. And, as you’ll learn from Arlie Hochschild’s research (see the interview in this issue) , even that small decrease has prompted a major social backlash in the US – a swing toward right-wing politics in
Appalachia.
POLITICAL REACTIONS Hochschild’s findings are not unique. Of course, there are other reasons why people may become right wing extremists (e.g. anything that causes people to decline in social prestige may produce resentment that fuels fascism) but the same connection to declining coal pro duction has been documented in several other countries besides the US. Hodg son found it in the United Kingdom. Bieler and Jordan found it in Germany. Batory found it in Poland. Baker and Sturgess found it in Australia. In Russia, there’s no opportunity for free political expression, but significant political reactions among ex-coal miners have been seen there too in regions heavily dependent on coal mining.
Both the U.S. and Russia have de creased coal to around 18 or 20 percent of their electricity generation, down from 30 percent and over 50 percent respectively a decade ago. We see great variability across countries. Canada, for example, now uses coal for only 7% of its electricity, France uses it for 10%, while China uses it for 50% and India for 70%. For obvious political reasons, the changes are made more easily in some countries than others.
Nevertheless, for climate reasons, King Coal must be dethroned every where. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), low-carbon electricity generation must account for 85% of global electrical output by 2040 in order to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Can such a drastic change occur that fast?
THE GROWTH OF SOLAR AND WIND
Some of that low-carbon electricity will come from hydroelectric power – mostly generated by dammed-up rivers or pumped-up reservoirs – but solar and wind power capacity is increasing astonishingly fast: at double-digit rates annually. For example, global solar capacity increased by about 22% in 2021, while wind power capacity grew by approximately 13%. This was possible be cause of the amazing drop in price. In many parts of the world, solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity generation. The cost of energy for utility-scale solar and onshore wind has fallen to as low as $30-$50 per megawatt-hour (MWh), whereas coal can
range from $60-$120 per MWh, depending on location and market conditions.
However, the transition away from carbon-sourced energy is not always made with one enormous leap. Instead, in many places coal-fired electricity not replaced by a renewable source like wind or solar but, in a first phase, by natural gas. Though it is still a fossil fuel, gas burns cleaner than coal, producing about half the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of electricity generated.
Russia is gradually changing from coal to natural gas but is hardly developing solar or wind power at all. In fact, if you look at the pie chart showing the comparative sources of electrical power in Russia, you will search in vain for the orange or green slices that would represent the portions of solar and wind power. So far, unfortunately, solar and wind provide essentially 0.0 percent of the country’s electricity. Clearly, a government that depends on the revenue of exporting oil and gas is hardly motivated to encourage non-carbon-based energy. So, the price of solar and wind power have not decreased as sharply in Russia as elsewhere
and therefore are not competitive with gas.
THE HEALTH BENEFITS
However, it is still progress when coal is replaced with natural gas. Leaving aside the possible political reacions of former coal miners, which are Reftinskaya GRES. (largest coal-fired power plant in Russia) | Wikipedia
