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Achieving sustainable peace requires understanding all the forces that sustain war, both legal and illegal. Efforts to prevent war often focus on political grievances, diplomacy, and international law, but they frequently overlook the profound relationship between war and organized crime. Ignoring this connection means missing a fundamental aspect of how modern warfare operates.
This article argues that there exists a powerful “criminology of war.” War is not only a political and military phenomenon; it is also embedded in systems of profit-making criminal activity. Modern conflicts sustain and are sustained by the illicit arms trade, drug trafficking, and human smuggling and trafficking. Rebel groups require weapons, often obtained through illegal arms markets. The large sums needed to purchase these weapons are frequently generated through involvement in the illicit drug trade.
At the same time, wars create mass displacement, producing vulnerable populations that become targets for human smugglers and traffickers. These interconnected criminal enterprises form a self-reinforcing system that profits from organized political violence.
Consequently, preventing war requires more than outlawing aggression or resolving disputes between combatants. It demands dismantling the criminal networks that depend on war for their survival and profitability.
War as an instrument of state policy has been considered illegal since the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Pact, which came into force in 1929. States renounced war as a means of resolving disputes and committed themselves to peaceful solutions.
Following the devastation of the First World War, in which approximately 21 million people died, many believed that humanity had taken a decisive step toward ending war.
Yet within two decades, the world descended into the even more destructive Second World War, resulting in an estimated 60 million deaths. The failure of the international community to prevent another global conflict demonstrated that declaring war illegal was not sufficient.
The League of Nations, established in 1919, represented the first major experiment in collective security. Its Covenant required member states to respect each other’s territorial integrity and independence, treating aggression against one member as aggression against all. However, the League proved ineffective due to structural weaknesses, including the requirement for unanimous decisions, the absence of key powers such as the United States, and the lack of enforcement mechanisms.
Nevertheless, the League provided the foundation for the creation of the United Nations in 1945. The UN Charter obliges member states to settle disputes peacefully and prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of other states. The Security Council was granted primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security, with authorization for the use of force restricted to decisions approved by its permanent members.
These developments established important legal and moral norms against war. However, wars have continued despite their illegality, demonstrating the limits of legal prohibitions alone.
The criminalization of war establishes moral boundaries even if it does not eliminate conflict.
Modern warfare, particularly as demonstrated during the Second World War, often evolves into “total war,” where entire societies mobilize their economic, industrial, scientific, and human resources for military purposes. In such circumstances, the distinction between civilian and military targets becomes blurred.
The consequences are catastrophic. The Second World War produced genocide, massacres, strategic bombing campaigns, widespread starvation, disease, and the only wartime use of nuclear weapons. Such conflicts inevitably generate war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.
Total war poses an existential threat to societies. Combatants often believe that defeat may mean annihilation, creating conditions in which virtually any action can be justified in the pursuit of victory. This dynamic contributes to the moral degradation associated with warfare. The pursuit of survival at all costs encourages conduct that would otherwise be considered unacceptable.
War therefore represents not only a failure of politics but also a profound challenge to humanity’s commitment to life, dignity, and security.
Wars are not only destructive; they are also highly profitable. The global arms industry benefits directly from conflict and international tensions.
According to recent estimates, the world’s largest arms-producing companies generated record revenues of approximately $679 billion in 2024, driven by ongoing wars and rising military expenditures.
Alongside the legal arms industry exists a substantial illicit arms trade. Although estimates vary, illegal arms trafficking is valued at several billion dollars annually. This market is particularly important in civil wars and internal armed conflicts, where rebel groups often rely on black-market weapons suppliers.
Sustaining armed conflict requires a continuous flow of money. While governments can finance military operations through taxation and other state revenues, insurgent groups often lack such resources. Consequently, many turn to criminal enterprises, particularly the illicit drug trade, to fund their activities.
The global illegal drug market is estimated to generate hundreds of billions of dollars annually, making it one of the world’s most lucrative criminal industries. Numerous studies have documented the close relationship between insurgencies, armed conflict, and drug trafficking.
War also produces another critical resource for organized crime: displaced people. Armed conflicts force millions to flee violence, destruction, and deprivation. Those seeking safety often depend on human smugglers to facilitate their escape. In many cases, smuggling operations evolve into human trafficking when coercion, exploitation, and control are involved.
Human trafficking and migrant smuggling generate enormous revenues, estimated in the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars annually. The profitability of these activities depends heavily on the conditions created by war, instability, and forced displacement.
Taken together, these relationships reveal a broader criminal economy surrounding war. The illicit arms trade depends on conflict. Drug trafficking often finances armed groups. Human smuggling and trafficking exploit populations displaced by violence. Each reinforces the others in a mutually beneficial cycle.
The connection between war and criminality is therefore neither incidental nor peripheral. It is structural. Wars create opportunities for criminal organizations, while criminal enterprises provide resources that help sustain wars.
This relationship forms what may be called the criminology of war: a system in which organized violence and organized crime are deeply interconnected.
The illicit arms trade supplies weapons. Drug trafficking generates revenue. Human smuggling and trafficking exploit the displacement caused by conflict. Together, these activities constitute some of the largest and fastest-growing forms of transnational organized crime.
The United Nations has recognized this dynamic, noting that transnational organized crime and conflict exist in a vicious cycle. Crime fuels conflict, while conflict creates environments in which criminal networks can thrive. The result is weakened governance, erosion of the rule of law, and greater obstacles to conflict resolution.
This understanding has important implications for peacebuilding. Efforts to prevent war cannot focus solely on the political and military dimensions of conflict. They must also address the criminal economies that benefit from and sustain violence.
The persistence of war despite its illegality reflects the fact that many actors profit from conflict. Legal and illegal arms dealers, drug traffickers, human smugglers, and traffickers all benefit from continuing instability and violence. These stakeholders have little interest in achieving sustainable peace.
As a result, those seeking to prevent war must address not only the grievances of opposing combatants but also the broader network of actors who derive economic benefits from conflict. Sustainable peace requires confronting the criminal structures that depend on war as a source of profit.
The United Nations has emphasized the need for comprehensive strategies that address both the root causes of conflict and the criminal networks that exploit them. Peacebuilding efforts must therefore combine conflict resolution, governance reform, law enforcement cooperation, and initiatives targeting transnational organized crime.
Ultimately, preventing war requires making peace more viable and more rewarding than conflict. A sustainable peace will only emerge when the political, economic, and criminal incentives that sustain war are systematically dismantled.
Criminalizing war was an important first step. The next challenge is confronting the criminology of war itself.
Dr. James Simeon, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University.