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After four weeks of discussing 20 proposals for solving global warming, the group decided which ones might actually help.
The virtual room was filled with scientists, policy experts, and environmental advocates, all gathered for a singular, monumental task: conducting an intensive inquiry into climate change.
Their goal was not simply to discuss global warming, but to rigorously evaluate a list of over 40 proposed interventions designed to halt, or even reverse, the climate crisis.
The group was tasked with narrowing down and grading 20 of the most prominent proposals. Some were familiar, nature-based solutions, while others were highly controversial and technologically complex “geoengineering” schemes.
As the meeting unfolded, it became a fascinating microcosm of the broader global debate on climate action: a delicate balancing act between proven, practical steps and radical, planetary-scale interventions. THE SCORING SYSTEM: CATEGORIZING THE FUTURE
To structure the daunting task, climate scientist Mike MacCracken proposed a straightforward three-tier scoring system.
“Category One” would be reserved for interventions that are “pretty well proven and reasonably well established.” These are solutions that, while perhaps requiring additional research in specific applications, are fundamentally sound and ready for implementation.
“Category Two” represented the crucial middle ground. These were ideas that showed promise but lacked enough evidence to be considered fully effective. They were concepts that were “worth pursuing and looking at” because they could potentially make a major difference in the coming decades.
“Category Three” was the rejection category—proposals that the group concluded should not be considered or pursued.
The group quickly recognized that evaluating these twenty proposals required careful judgment. Robert Chris pointed out the challenge of scalability: an idea might produce impressive results locally but be ineffective when applied globally. Robin Collins added another layer of complexity, noting that a Category Two proposal—unproven but highly promising—could be more urgent and important to pursue than a safe, established Category One solution.
Despite these philosophical differences, the group agreed to proceed with the 1-2-3 system, acknowledging, as MacCracken stated, that “we’ve dawdled so long, we’re at the state where we really have to do everything we can.”
The early part of the session focused on the foundation of modern climate action: improving energy efficiency and transitioning to renewable energy.
The discussion highlighted the importance of clear language and practical definitions in policymaking.
When the topic of “electrification” was raised, the group encountered a challenge: What does electrification mean in the context of addressing climate change?
Arnd Jurgensen clarified the issue: “If electrification is based on burning coal, it’s of no advantage whatsoever. It has to be tied to electrification based on renewable sources of energy.”
This led to a deeper discussion of energy systems, with Robert Chris introducing the concept of the Kaya identity. He explained that climate mitigation requires addressing two separate factors: energy efficiency (the amount of energy used per unit of GDP) and carbon intensity (the amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy).
Ultimately, the group decided to separate the proposals. They gave strong support to utility-scale renewable energy generation and the transmission networks needed to support it. They also strongly endorsed a separate proposal for increased energy efficiency, removing the ambiguous term “electrification” to ensure the focus remained on reducing overall energy demand, regardless of the energy source.
The discussion then shifted toward behavioral and nature-based solutions.
A proposal to “campaign to reduce the consumption of living animal protein”—essentially encouraging vegan or vegetarian diets—received mixed reactions.
The disagreement was not about the scientific connection between meat consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but about the wording of the proposal, particularly the word “campaign.”
Gregory Hooks noted that the term suggested a government-led or top-down initiative that was not actually occurring, while people were already voluntarily changing their diets.
Once Spencer agreed to remove the word “Campaign” was removed, and the proposal received overwhelming support.
Similarly, a proposal to “protect forests, wetlands, and mangroves” received near-unanimous Category One votes. While MacCracken noted that protecting mangroves might not directly reduce global average temperatures, Jurgensen emphasized their essential role in climate resilience and flood mitigation.
It was a reminder that climate strategy is not only about lowering the planet’s temperature; it is also about helping ecosystems and societies survive the impacts of a warmer world.
As the meeting progressed into its later stages, the discussion shifted toward the more controversial territory of geoengineering. While planting trees and building solar panels are widely understood approaches, the group had to consider technologies that seem closer to science fiction.
Central to this section of the debate were proposals aimed at manipulating the Earth’s albedo.
The albedo effect measures how much sunlight (solar radiation) is reflected by a surface. Ice and snow have high albedo, reflecting much of the Sun’s energy back into space, while darker surfaces such as oceans and forests have lower albedo and absorb more heat.
As global warming melts polar ice caps, Earth’s overall albedo decreases, creating a dangerous feedback loop in which the planet absorbs more solar energy and warms further.
To counter this effect, several proposals examined “albedo enhancement.” The group’s broader five-week inquiry considered radical ideas including stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), marine cloud brightening, space mirrors, and surface albedo enhancement.
The central concept behind these technologies is Solar Radiation Management (SRM).
Stratospheric aerosol injection, for example, attempts to mimic the cooling effect of a major volcanic eruption by releasing reflective sulfate particles high into the atmosphere to bounce sunlight back into space.
Marine cloud brightening involves spraying atomized seawater into low-level coastal clouds to make them whiter and more reflective.
Surface albedo enhancement could include approaches ranging from painting urban roofs white to deploying reflective materials over dark ocean surfaces or creating nanobubbles to increase the reflectivity of seawater.
The debate over these albedo-modifying technologies revealed a deep divide within the climate community, clearly expressed by Paul Werbos and Robert Chris.
Werbos expressed strong skepticism about deploying these technologies without significantly more research.
“I would vote against any government action now, except for research and incentives for any of the true geoengineering technologies,” Werbos stated.
He argued that the economic incentives for immediate deployment are not justified until scientists have a much clearer understanding of potential environmental impacts and unintended consequences.
Altering Earth’s albedo could disrupt global weather patterns, affect monsoon systems, and create unforeseen consequences for global agriculture. Here is the text with unwanted line breaks removed and paragraphs restored:
Robert Chris, however, offered a sobering counter-perspective rooted in the sheer desperation of the current climate trajectory. “The bad news is that by the time we have an understanding, the day will be lost,” Chris warned. “That’s the direction we’re headed.”
When Werbos likened the situation to “flying the airplane and hoping it doesn’t crash,” Chris did not back down. “Absolutely,” Chris replied. “When you are in a crisis, you take risks, and that’s the truth of the matter. If you want something that is risk-free, then go to bed.”
This exchange encapsulated the terrifying reality of the albedo enhancement debate. We are rapidly losing the Earth’s natural reflective shields and replacing them with artificial ones. This entails immense risk, but doing nothing might guarantee a planetary crash.
Beyond reflecting sunlight, the latter third of the meeting focused heavily on physical interventions designed to pull carbon out of the atmosphere and stabilize the oceans.
Metta Spencer brought up the concept of enhanced rock weathering. This involves taking specific types of rock, crushing them into dust, and spreading them over agricultural land. The rocks naturally react with carbon dioxide in the air and rain, turning it into stable carbonates that eventually wash into the ocean. Spencer noted that it’s highly beneficial for agriculture acting almost like a fertilizer but acknowledged the logistical nightmare of moving millions of tons of heavy rock. She suggested utilizing existing mine tailings the crushed rock left over from mining operations as a cheap, accessible source of material.
The group immediately saw the pitfalls. Arnd Jurgensen pointed out a severe environmental risk: “Mine tailings usually have various issues with toxicity… if they can be easily spread on fields and absorb carbon, that would be great, but in the process, they add cyanide to the soil and various other things of that sort, then this becomes highly problematic.”
Robert Chris dealt a mathematical blow to the concept’s global viability. He explained the basic chemistry of the weathering process: “For every ton of carbon dioxide that you sequester, you have to move, handle in some way 15 tons of material… This is another one of these applications that makes lots of engineering sense, but makes no global sense, because it’s just not chemically efficient enough.”
If the world needs to remove a gigaton of CO2, it will require mining, crushing, and transporting 15 gigatons of rock. The sheer scale makes it a Category Two proposal at best useful locally, but not a global silver bullet.
A similar debate unfolded around Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement. As the oceans absorb roughly 30% of the world’s carbon emissions, they are becoming increasingly acidic. This ocean acidification is devastating marine ecosystems, dissolving the shells of mollusks and bleaching coral reefs.
The proposed intervention involves adding massive amounts of alkaline substances (like sodium hydroxide or processed olivine) to the ocean to neutralize the acid.
However, as Jurgensen and MacCracken pointed out, this is a treatment for a symptom, not a cure for the disease. “Will it actually reduce any carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, or will it merely compensate for the amount of acidity that the carbon dioxide… is already adding to the ocean?” Jurgensen asked.
MacCracken agreed that changing the acidity of the global ocean would be a “humongous challenge,” but suggested it could be a vital local intervention to save specific, highly valued ecosystems like coral lagoons. It is a “band-aid,” but when the patient is bleeding out, band-aids are necessary.
The conversation that took place is a perfect snapshot of where humanity currently stands. The easy answers efficiency, renewable energy, protecting forests are universally agreed upon, yet implementing them globally remains a political struggle.
But it is in the latter half of their discussion where the true gravity of the proposed interventions comes into focus. Whether it is moving 15 gigatons of rock, dumping alkali into the seas, or the terrifying prospect of artificially enhancing the Earth’s albedo by spraying aerosols into the stratosphere, the solutions are becoming as extreme as the problem.
We have dawdled too long. The airplane is in the air, the engines are sputtering, and the ground is coming up fast. As this panel of experts made clear, we are past the point of risk-free solutions. The only option left is to grab the controls, try every switch on the dashboard, and do whatever it takes to keep the plane flying.